Search this blog

Loading

4/19/2009 11:21:00 AM

(0) Comments

Delphi method in forecasting

タオ チューン

,

Delphi method is often used in making decision and in project management when you need to determine the durations of the tasks.
It is defined as:
The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of independent experts. The carefully selected experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results. (Source: Wiki)

You can apply this method by using the free service at this address
0 Responses to "Delphi method in forecasting"